Zyprexa

It is the brand-specific nature of some programs that concerns some specialists.

Dr.

David S.

Sobel, medical director for patient education and health promotion in Northern California for Kaiser Permanente, a big health maintenance organization, said drug company compliance programs were not necessarily bad but that Kaiser preferred to run its own.

"If somebody's in a program for a certain statin and we change that statin, are they out of the program?

" Dr.

Sobel said, referring to cholesterol-lowering medication.

"If it goes generic, do they shut down the program?

" Dr.

John Abramson, a physician and author of "Overdosed America," said another potential problem was that medicines were overprescribed.

In such cases, compliance programs would be inducing people to keep taking pills they did not need.

Some specialists say there is a potential for abuse in the closer links being forged between pharmaceutical companies and their patients.

In the past, drug companies generally dealt only with doctors and insurers.

But organizers of the industry programs say that instead of bypassing the doctor, they are providing services like 24-hour-a-day call centers that many doctors cannot.

"We are an extension of the physician's office," said Kerr Holbrook, vice president for marketing at McKesson's specialty pharmaceuticals division, which runs the program tha...

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...

They predict analysts will have to raise their earnings estimates next year.

"Upside forecasts are more likely [than downside ones]," argues Catherine Arnold of Credit Suisse (CSR ), which has done banking for Lilly.

Her earnings estimates of $3.18 a share in 2006 and $3.46 in 2007 exceed analysts' consensus forecasts of $3.14 and $3.41.

Lilly earned $2.87 in 2005.

It is one of the few drugmakers free of patent worry until 2011, notes Arnold - unlike Pfizer (PFE ) and Merck (MRK ), whose big-selling anti-cholesterol products face patent expiration.

Arnold points out that Lilly is developing a reformulation of Another potential winner: Byetta, co-developed with Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN ), which the Food & Drug Administration approved last May as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes.

It could generate $1.2 billion a year for Lilly, says Arnold.

Herman Saftlas of Standard & Poor's (MHP ), who rates Lilly a strong buy, says its growth products and pipeline make it one of the most attractive big-cap drugmakers.

He predicts the stock, now at 57, will hit 65 in 12 months.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, neither the sources cited in Inside Wall Street nor their firms hold positions in the stocks under discussion.

Similarly, they have no investment banking or other financial relationships with them.

By Gene G.

Marcial ...