Zyprexa

The drug's sales may have topped $65 million in 2005, with Amylin's total revenue reaching about $130 million, thanks to milestone payments from Lilly.

Fans like Piper Jaffray's Thomas Wei foresee Byetta's annual sales hitting about $1 billion by 2009.

That would let Amylin finally turn a profit, about 50 cents a share (after accounting for employee stock options).

Much hinges on Amylin's getting FDA approval for the once-a-week version of Byetta.

Some bulls sound downright giddy.

Amylin "represents the triumph over adversity that is the shared DNA of all of us in this industry," cheered Andrew Foreman of WR Hambrecht, in a recent Buy recommendation.

"This is no time for using models to value stocks." With Amylin trading at 37 times revenue, it's not surprising that about 15 million shares have been sold short — about 15% of the float and 10 days' trading volume.

Among the stock's unheeded risks is the competition from some soon-to-be approved drugs, including Pfizer's (PFE) Exubera, the first insulin that patients can inhale.

The agency also is likely to approve Acomplia, an obesity drug from Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) that doctors will probably prescribe for diabetes patients.

And in this year's first quarter, Novo Nordisk (NVO) will begin a large Phase III study of a more direct rival to Byetta, called liraglutide.

It requires a daily shot, making it more convenient than the now-approved version of Byetta, ...

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